Japan defense, diplomatic officials anxious over impact of Trump presidency
(Mainichi Japan)
Tokyo is looking to press United States President-elect Donald Trump to maintain the central importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance, after Trump's many controversial comments including the suggestion that Japan acquire nuclear weapons.
However, the Republican's campaign speech demands that America's allies pay the full cost of hosting U.S. military bases on their territory and his other extreme statements have obscured the future of Japan-U.S. relations.
When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was told of Trump's likely victory on the afternoon of Nov. 9, he apparently said, "People are calling for politicians to say things clearly." Abe aide Katsuyuki Kawai will head to Washington on Nov. 14 to talk to Trump's foreign policy advisers and explain Abe's push to deepen the Japan-U.S. alliance.
A senior government official confirmed they had discussions with a Trump adviser, retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, when Flynn visited Japan in October.
"There likely won't be any sudden changes in U.S. diplomatic and security policy," the official said. However, Japanese agencies concerned with defense and foreign relations had assumed that Democrat Hillary Clinton -- a major booster for the U.S.'s "strategic rebalancing" to Asia during her time as secretary of state -- would succeed President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. Trump's victory has come as an enormous shock in these quarters.
"It's a very difficult time, as we don't know what will happen with (U.S.) foreign policy," a senior Foreign Ministry official told the Mainichi Shimbun. Meanwhile, a figure close to the prime minister said, "There are worries, but if time is taken to explain things, then Trump will probably understand."
What worries Tokyo the most is the possibility of the Trump administration drawing down U.S. troop levels in Japan, or demanding that Japan pay a greater share of the costs of hosting U.S. bases. Trump even demanded during the election campaign that allies pay the entire cost of having American bases on their territory. The government has told the Trump camp that Japan already pays about 75 percent of the costs for the U.S. military presence here, as compared to the 30 to 40 percent borne by fellow U.S. allies South Korea and Germany. However, Trump "seems likely to keep asking for Japan to assume more of the burden even after he takes office," a senior Defense Ministry official commented.
There are also worried voices wondering if Trump will maintain close cooperation with Japan on regional issues such as dealing with Beijing in the East and South China seas, and North Korea's nuclear weapons program. A government source told the Mainichi, "When it comes to China, Mr. Trump prioritizes economic issues, and it's certainly possible that he won't continue President Obama's position that the (disputed) Senkaku Islands are covered by the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty."
Trump has said he has no problem talking with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Japanese officials are worried that the next U.S. administration could cut Tokyo out of future diplomatic discussions with Pyongyang.
"The key will be whether mainstream Republicans join the Trump administration," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior researcher at The Tokyo Foundation think tank, suggesting that many of Japan's worries could be addressed depending on who ends up in positions of power in the U.S. government.